Peak & taper across two goals: sub-20 5K (W27, ~Sep 5) then a 1:35 half marathon (W31, Oct 4). Endurance carried by a parallel long-run ladder; reduced volume and goal-pace sharpening into race day.
Sub-20 Probability
medium confidence — Week 16
Next checkpoint: Mid-phase check — ~20:45 (5 Jul – 11 Jul) · in 1 week
4×800m at 5K effort (4:15–4:30/km) with 90 sec recovery. 10 min warmup, 8 min cooldown.
Easy 4km. Stay in Z2 (134–146 bpm), conversational pace. Indicative pace ~5:20–5:50/km.
15km easy long run. Stay in Z2 (134–146 bpm), 5:30–6:00/km.
30–45 min cycling session. Recovery intensity — aim for Peloton HR Zone 1–2. Pick a power zone endurance or recovery ride, not low impact.
30–45 min cycling session. Moderate intensity — aim for Peloton HR Zone 2. Can push into Peloton HR Zone 3 if feeling good.
30–45 min strength session (legs/upper/core rotation).
LONG-TERM PLAN UPDATE (chase both): half marathon booked Sun 2026-10-04, goal 1:35:00 (4:30/km). Plan extended from 27 to 31 weeks; Phase 4 endWeek 27→31. Sub-20 5K stays the W27 target (~Sep 5); the half is the A-race. Endurance built in parallel via a long-run ladder (replacing the flat 10–11km long runs) on non-parkrun weeks W17–26 (to 19km by W24), with half-pace "fast finish" segments from W18. Added 4 weeks: W28 re-lengthen after the 5K (17km), W29 half-readiness GATE (20km w/ last 10km @ 4:30), W30 sharpen (6km @ 4:30; 14km), W31 taper + RACE. New checkpoints: W29 gate, W31 half (1:35). Honest tradeoff: the 5K taper squeezes the half's peak 20km into the 2-weeks-out slot (W29) — only one 20km, adequate for 1:35 given aerobic base + bike volume. If the back forces a cut, the long runs + Oct 4 half win over the 5K. Implemented via additive script (no reseed; live DB is source of truth — seed source kept structurally correct only).
Claude — General — 6/7/2026
W14 record correction + recurring injury pattern. ACTUAL W14 sequence: Mon 06-01 rest; Tue 06-02 weights (fine at the time); Wed 06-03 AM easy run completed (logged correctly, id 63); Wed 06-03 PM delayed-onset back pain hit; Thu 06-04–Sat 06-06 lost to back (Peloton recovery, Peloton moderate, and 10km long all missed); Sun 06-07 tempo run completed pain-free and strong (work split 4:46/HR 156, in the 4:45–4:55 target, RPE 5). NOTE: the tempo (run log id 64) is mis-dated 06-04 in the DB — it was actually run today 06-07. No tool to re-date a log; needs a UI fix if tidiness wanted. So W14 actual = weights + easy + tempo (2 quality-relevant runs banked), not a write-off. PATTERN (concern): second consecutive delayed-onset back flare from weights — W12 was also built around back recovery, and W14 weights triggered pain ~30h later (Wed evening). Both flares cost the back half of the week. With W16 checkpoint (Sub 21:15) two weeks out, the strength session is the single biggest controllable leak. DECISION: drop heavy lower-body / hip-hinge loading until after W16; weights downgraded to core + upper only. W15 restructured to BANK both key sessions (VO2 Tue, long run Sat) BEFORE the weights, which are pushed to Sun 06-14 (core/upper only) so any delayed flare lands early in W16 with a full buffer before the Sat 06-20 checkpoint. Fitness signal remains positive: threshold (tempo) and VO2 work keep landing on target despite the volume disruption.
Claude — Week 14 — 6/7/2026
W14 scheduled Tue–Sun with Mon 6/1 as rest day per runner request. Order: Tue weights (upper/core bias), Wed easy run, Thu tempo (peak hard day), Fri Peloton recovery, Sat Peloton moderate, Sun 10km long. Hard-day spacing: 48h Wed easy → Thu tempo, 72h Thu tempo → Sun long. Tempo target held at 4:45–4:55 (template 79 re-sharpened from 5:00–5:15 to match W12). Runner explicitly chose to hold the target rather than back off after W12 work block hit 4:40/HR 167 — wants to execute properly rather than keep adjusting. HR 165 remains the abort: if it climbs there, hold pace at slow end of range; do not chase pace at the cost of HR cap.
Claude — Week 14 — 5/31/2026